Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

BIHAR, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
64.29
2019 · 18 of 28
Incumbents contesting
70.0
28 of 40 seats
First-time winners
37.5
15 new faces
Turncoats
24
1 won · strike rate 4.17%
Vs previous
+26.79pp
From 37.5% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    64.29%
  2. 2014
    37.5%
  3. 2009
    24.14%
  4. 2004
    36.11%
  5. 1999
    52.27%
  6. 1998
    48.0%
  7. 1996
    45.95%
  8. 1991
    56.82%
  9. 1989
    7.32%
  10. 1984
    58.14%
  11. 1980
    26.09%
  12. 1977
    26.32%
  13. 1971
    78.79%
  14. 1967
    93.75%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    37.5%
  2. 2014
    32.5%
  3. 2009
    50.0%
  4. 2004
    32.5%
  5. 1999
    14.81%
  6. 1998
    33.33%
  7. 1996
    38.89%
  8. 1991
    17.31%
  9. 1989
    48.15%
  10. 1984
    35.19%
  11. 1980
    35.19%
  12. 1977
    55.56%
  13. 1971
    43.4%
  14. 1967
    32.08%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 24 turncoats1 won (4.17%)
2014 41 turncoats6 won (14.63%)
2009 29 turncoats3 won (10.34%)
2004 30 turncoats9 won (30.0%)
1999 47 turncoats19 won (40.43%)
1998 41 turncoats11 won (26.83%)
1996 41 turncoats9 won (21.95%)
1991 25 turncoats5 won (20.0%)
1989 22 turncoats12 won (54.55%)
1984 37 turncoats9 won (24.32%)
1980 64 turncoats16 won (25.0%)
1977 26 turncoats21 won (80.77%)
1971 9 turncoats4 won (44.44%)
1967 5 turncoats5 won (100.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 28 contesting18 won · 64.29% strike rate
2014 32 contesting12 won · 37.5% strike rate
2009 29 contesting7 won · 24.14% strike rate
2004 36 contesting13 won · 36.11% strike rate
1999 44 contesting23 won · 52.27% strike rate
1998 50 contesting24 won · 48.0% strike rate
1996 37 contesting17 won · 45.95% strike rate
1991 44 contesting25 won · 56.82% strike rate
1989 41 contesting3 won · 7.32% strike rate
1984 43 contesting25 won · 58.14% strike rate
1980 46 contesting12 won · 26.09% strike rate
1977 38 contesting10 won · 26.32% strike rate
1971 33 contesting26 won · 78.79% strike rate
1967 32 contesting30 won · 93.75% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 64.29% is above the historical average of 43.7%.

    64.29% vs avg 43.7%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1967 with a 93.75% re-election rate (30 of 32).

    Highest: 1967 at 93.75%

  4. 15 winners in 2019 (37.5%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    15 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1980 with 64 turncoats, of whom 16 won (25.0% strike rate).

    Peak: 64 turncoats in 1980
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